CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T03:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32584/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-07T03:24Z as well as in later frames of C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME appears very faint in white light imagery. The best fit between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A indicate that this event may originate from the vicinity of S15E30, however there is no definitive source seen on the disk for this event. There are a number of speculative sources including field line loop movement and brightening from AR 3781 (S13E42) as seen in SDO AIA 94. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-09T22:36Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.5 - 6.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 17.42 hour(s)
Difference: 13.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-08-09T18:30Z
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